The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is unlikely to face a full repeal, even if Trump wins the 2024 U.S. election, as this would require Republican control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, which is improbable given the expected slim majorities in Congress.
A Trump administration would prioritize extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions set to expire in 2025, with any IRA changes considered in the context of funding these cuts. Potential adjustments could include changes to electric vehicle tax credits, stricter qualifications for advanced manufacturing tax credits involving foreign entities of concern, and expedited timelines for technology-neutral tax credits.
Historically, Republican tax changes tend to be prospective rather than retroactive, meaning existing projects meeting certain requirements (e.g., binding contracts) could still qualify for credits despite any future changes.
